This is a valuable paper that delineates the critical and timely actions that must be taken to stop the spread of contagion. Everyone should read this in its entirety, but I will summarize relevant points to remember.
A central point to this analysis is the community-to-community spread of the contagion, no matter what "size" that community may be. It can the size of a country or as small as a city, so long as disease transmission within communities is far more frequent then disease transmission between communities. The goal here is to stop the spread within communities first, then deal with the lower cases of disease transmission between communities.
a) A community is defined as infected if someone with the infection enters the community.
b) If the infection is not immediately contained, the infection spreads at an exponential rate.
c) Aggressive social distancing and isolation measure cause the number of active infections to decrease.
d) These measure can only be lifted once there are no remaining active infections in the community; or when the community is fully contained.
e) Each infected community infected uninfected communities proportionally to the number of active infections through travel to other communities, sustaining the spread to new communities, including reinfections.
f) The frequency of travel from an infected community increases the possibility of spread.
g) A reduction in travel from communities results in a proportion reduction in infection.
h) Improvements in testing, contact tracing, and quarantines result in a proportional reduction in infection.
i) Preemptive reductions in large events such as conferences, as well as social distancing reduces "super spreader" events as well as general transmission.
j) Without timely implementation of aggressive social distancing measures, restricting travel from infected communities serve only to delay the spread of the outbreak. Both must be implemented as soon as possible.
k) Social distancing, along with restricting travel, will be in some cases the deciding factor in determining whether or not the outbreak is eliminated.
l) Travel reductions can greatly decrease the duration of the outbreak, and therefore decrease the total number of illness and death.
m) It is of paramount importance that communities and governments act as soon as possible. Once infection has taken hold in a community, exponential growth ensures that it is only a matter of time before the infection becomes widespread.
n) Thus, government action is inevitable, and delaying action not only linearly increases the expected total amount of time for with distancing measures will need to remain in place but also exponentially increases that probability that another community will become infected.
o) Delaying actions only becomes increasingly costly, and the longer a community waits, the more important it becomes to avoid further delay.
p) There is no advantage to delaying at all: immediately implementing aggressive social distancing measures as soon as there is evidence that the disease is actively spreading with the community will reduce the total amount of time for with such measures will need to be implemented, exponentially reduce the number of infections within the community, and exponentially reduce the probability of infecting another community. While the risk to individuals may be low in the early stages of a community outbreak, the collective risk at the community and global levels is extremely high.
q) Finally, just as transmission within a community is an exponential process in which the need for immediate action is not always apparent (due to a deceptively small number of initial cases), the transmission between communities is also such an exponential process.
At first the number of infected communities is deceptively small, but without rapid action this number exponentially grows.The sooner a set of communities decides to adopt a protocol that reduces rate of transmission (below 1), the shorter the amount of time between the adoption of the protocol and the elimination of the disease.
Early action is therefore, absolutely paramount to stopping the disease.
This is why shutting down non-essential activity is so critically important. It is the only way we have to stopping the rising death toll and rate of infection. Failure to shut down non-essential activity guarantees failure, overwhelming the medical system to provide sufficient care, and in all probability, provided enough time, collapsing almost everything else. Without adequate medical care, the number of sick and dying will also overwhelm the declining resources of the survivors.
Everyone in Washington is aware of the COVID-19 (coronavirus) threat that has devastated much of the world's economies, killed thousands of people, and is now here in the United States, spreading rapidly. Washington State has the 2nd worst case of infection but the highest deaths within the United States.
To his credit, Governor Inslee has made significant steps to protect Washington residents in the past few weeks, but it's not enough, not anymore. Today's video presentation of the Governor addressing the State of Washington demonstrated a difficult choice: Ask residents to self-quarantine, or force resident to quarantine.
The indecisive nature of the Governor's presentation is disturbing with the known facts about the rapid spread of the contagion, the number of people presently infected, and the very high likelihood that the United States will soon be mostly shut down throughout the nation.
The reason why such drastic measures must be taken is because there are still large numbers of people who have disregarded the warnings and have refused to change their daily behavior, enabling the spread of the virus. Numerous people continue to ignore the clear warnings and how their behavior poses a dangerous threat to themselves and everyone around them.
Since each person, nationwide, is a potential carrier and a potential victim of the virus, the coronavirus has continued to spread with ease throughout the population (worldwide). At this time, there are tens of thousands of infected persons within the United States, and hundreds of thousands in other countries, soon to be millions. In another few weeks, it is fully expected for there to be many more thousands of deaths in the US, and an even greater spread of the virus within the general population. The situation is clearly out of control.
This is not hyperbole, these are the present estimates from the nation's top experts. Two hospital ships are being deployed to both coasts to help with the enormous strain on the nation's medical system, which is already severely overwhelmed with cases and patients. Decisions will be made as the case load rises on who will be chosen to receive medical treatment and care, including ventilators, and who will not. These discussions are happening RIGHT NOW.
Please watch - Emergency room doctor tells it like it already is in the United States:
This is a terrifying ordeal for all Americans, which is precisely why indecision is what isn't needed. Despite the pressure from Federal, State and local governments, it is the responsibility of the State Governor to everything possible to ensure the health and safety of the citizens within the State. And we desperately need comprehensive competent leadership at the Federal level immediately.
I would not want to be in his position right now. He's facing a State population that is both scared and doubtful, with far too many people of all ages not taking this pandemic seriously enough. Employers are demanding employees show up for work, while workers are torn between a paycheck and self-protecting themselves and their families. The Governor HAS asked both employers and employees, and all State citizens to stay home voluntarily, and has clearly warned that if this does not happen, then stronger measures will be taken.
Such measures have already been taken by California and New York, where state-wide shut downs have been issued for over 71 MILLION people for the same reasons - voluntary compliance did not work. It is not working here either, and residents MUST be ordered to stay home.
Lacking this fundamental change in behavior guarantees a protracted, extremely difficult future for everyone. Thousands, even millions could die, or be reinfected, ensuring a continual supply of human hosts for the virus.
From the horrifying examples of what was seen and experienced in China, Italy, Spain, France, Germany, Brazil, Iran, South Korea, England and other countries of the world - the ONLY thing that slows the rate of infections down on this highly contagious virus is to both "socially distance" yourself and to avoid going into public places. This includes any and all public places, including the work environment.
Only critical and essential infrastructure and services should be left in operation. Communications, medical treatment and care, transportation, utilities and supermarkets and fuel deliveries. These are the essential components everyone needs, but almost everyone else is being asked to STAY HOME.
A shut down is not martial law. Citizens are being asked to "shelter in place" at home. You are being asked, politely for the moment, to stay at home, with the following exceptions:
Residents are to remain in place except for essential activities, with the following exemptions:
Task to maintain health and safety, going to the doctor or pharmacy, getting necessary supplies, pet food and supplies, engaging in outdoor activities, maintain a 6ft spacing between people, caring for another family member in another household, caring for the elderly or infirm or other vulnerable persons.
The shelter order does NOT apply to those going to work in essential business or government function, health care operations, including home care, essential infrastructure, including house construction, operation of public transportation, utilities, grocery stores, food banks, convenience stores, businesses for necessities of life for economically disadvantaged, auto repair, gas stations, garbage collection, hardware stores, plumbers, electricians, sanitation and essential operations of essential businesses, educational institutions, laundromats, delivery of groceries, child care facilities for essential employees going to work, and maintain basic operations.
You're still allowed to maintain essential life activities, but some freedoms have been curtailed. If you work in a non-essential business or activity, you stay home. You can still go to the store, still buy gas, you can still get your car fixed and so on. Otherwise, you stay home and we all wait this out.
It is likely, but not certain, that even these measure will not be enough - provided the citizenry either refuses to obey these orders, or that these orders prove to be insufficient.
Following state-wide shut down orders, is martial law, where the military is utilized to assist with State activities and efforts to contain the virus, prohibiting travel by all persons except those who are authorized. Suspension of Constitutional rights will worsen to the point of being non-existent under these temporary measures.
Washington NEEDS to avoid this drastic step if at all possible, but it demands the voluntary cooperation of all persons, all employers, both the young and the old. Failure to do so will kill thousand of the aged and the those with underlying health conditions. But the virus killer does not stop there, a significant percentage of people between 20 and 44 years old (38%) become severely ill after contracting the virus, requiring ventilators to breath.
There are not enough medical personnel, nor doctors and nurses, or ventilators or beds to meet the expected case load within the State, or anywhere else in the nation. Already, hospitals are pleading for equipment, assistance and personnel to deal with the rapidly rising case load. Doctors and nurses are running on exhaustion already. Every front line position is being overwhelmed trying to deal with this virus. This is truly terrifying for us all, a global crisis of enormous proportions.
Dentist and being asked to reduce their consumption of supplies and equipment, appointments to essential care only, elective surgeries have been cancelled across the nation, and if anyone becomes ill, injured or in need of care at the height of this epidemic for any reason, it may not be available to you.
Borders have been closed with Canada, and numerous countries around the world in a desperate attempt to stop the contagion. So far, nothing has actually worked - and there is no cure. There is no vaccine, no guaranteed methodology of treatment and care, that will ensure anyone infected of survival. People of all ages have sickened and died, from mere hours to a few weeks, with most vulnerable of our population being the elderly and those with underlying health conditions.
Don't think that because you are young and healthy that "you will be ok", there is no guarantee of that. You can be asymptomatic (show no symptoms, and suffer no ill effects) while infecting everyone around you, literally killing them. You can also get sick very rapidly and if there is no medical care or hospital beds available to you, you either recover or die at home. That is exactly what happened in China, Iran, Italy as their medical system literally collapsed. That medical system is now collapsing right here, in the United States.
Pay attention - this is VERY serious. Italy has 3.2 hospital beds per 1000 people, the US has 2.8. The medical system in Italy has collapsed. Horrifying decision are being made, choosing who among the seriously ill will be given treatment, a ventilator and care, and who will not. Videos and pictures from Italy show a very grim situation as military trucks in convey haul out the dead. All funerals, weddings have been cancelled. The United States has already enacted "death visitation" rights only to family members allowing only a single visit to those who are dying. If you are not scared and now alert, you should be. My point is not to frighten, but to ask for voluntary cooperation for the public good and the safety, and very future of our State and Nation.
The situation is grave and very serious. Stopping the virus requires ending the cycle of contagion, as it moves from human-to-human. That requires us all to stay home, hundreds of millions of us, State by State.
The Governor has to make a difficult decision, but it is for the future of this State, and the nation, that it must be made immediately.
In the meantime, you are strongly advised to take these warnings with utmost seriousness and stay home. Tell your children, your spouse, your parents and even your friends, we must all cooperate in this national emergency, otherwise we really do not know what will be on the other side of this, the "worst case" that can be envisioned.
Nobody wants to go there, and it is up to each of us to put a stop to the transmission of the virus.
I also recommend Dr John Campbell's common sense videos, well worth watching:
I'm still here. I've been hanging in the background for months, watching and waiting for the dialogue with the toxic smelter supporters (our local government and a few citizens) and the citizens of Pend Oreille County to improve.
That didn't happen. The same level of dishonesty, malfeasance, deception and downplaying of what is facing the residents of Newport, Oldtown and the surrounding area has remained.
So now it's time to vote - if you haven't voted already. This is your chance to make a difference. To get rid of some of the corruption in Pend Oreille County and Bonner County. Two officials of particular importance are up for re-election. Mike Manus and Dan McDonald. Get rid of both of these clowns. Make your votes count. Both men have demonstrated themselves unfit for the office in which they hold and have deceived, lied and misled their constituents since taking office.
And both support the construction of the toxic silicon smelter above the town of Newport.
Getting rid of these men will be just the beginning of a citizens revolt against corrupt local government. We've got a State fight to consider too. Senator Short is also on the list for dishonesty and a toxic silicon smelter. She's got to go too.
It's now time to make your voices heard, again. So far, they have not been listening to the people which they are supposed to represent. They never will. Oddly, they've all claimed that what they want is what we want, but it's not true. We do not want a toxic silicon smelter to ruin our air, water, soil, forests and livelihoods. We want to keep this region safe from toxic industries, period. We always have. We always will.
Not Here, Not Now, Not Ever - Effective Resistance Strategy, Part I
Now is the right time to resist the silicon smelter proposed for Newport, Washington. Now is when it is easiest, most effective and the hardest to stop the resistance movement.
Pend Oreille County has refused to back down on this project of "state wide significance" (an oxymoron that assumes a false authority) and has promoted the lie that the "public concerns will be addressed".
This is dishonest from the very start, because they're refusing to cancel this project. Anything less then that, does not address our concerns. And the only "state wide significance" is nobody in the State of Washington other then public officials wants this nasty thing. Using buzzwords like this, including "net environmental benefit" are deceptive terms meant to dissuade dissent and public refusal. Don't let them change the narrative into something that it isn't. Smelters are toxic to human and environmental health. That will never change.
HiTest Sands has also refused to back down, claiming that they will have their investors lined up in early January 2018 (all five of them, apparently). The amount of money being raised is only $200 million (at this time), not the $325 million that has been widely publicized. However, virtually nothing coming out of their mouths can be trusted, as we have seen. Industrialists will say anything to get their projects approved. This leads me to believe that the same people on the board of directors at HiTest Sands and Silicon Investments are the primary "investors", and there are very few others, probably less then ten people involved.
That's good news. We can handle ten people. We can even handle more, because there are a great many more of us that will refuse this project at any cost.
There are two primary strategic areas to work on for effective resistance:
There are other sources, such as Coldwell Banker and John Scott (local real estate agencies), but I'm not in the habit of giving them a free promotion, so you can look them up yourself if you are so inclined.
What you will find is HiTest Sands has already done MASSIVE damage to the real estate market in this entire area. Or rather, our County and PUD Commissioners have, by assisting and enabling HiTest Sands (multiple violations of law have occurred, but the primary point is none of these people had to help HiTest, but they did).
And they're not even here yet. They're like a deadly ghost, spooking the town and creeping around, everybody is scared, upset and concerned.
Amazing, isn't it? Our officials are worried about jobs and employment and they're already running people off who have lived here for decades. Others are more recent arrivals and they're trying to leave too.
My apologies to readers. The HiTest Sands meeting was supposed to be a dog-and-pony show, at least that's what I reasonably expected from a multi-million dollar "company", even a paper one.
Instead, what we got was a regurgitated out-of-focus slide show with missing images, that almost nobody in the audience could actually read. It was just a rip-off slap dash slide presentation taken from their pathetic website that conveys almost nothing of real substance, and did virtually nothing to appease the still rising concerns of the community.
ALL of the gymnasium bleachers, perhaps a 800 - 1000 people or so showed up - and all they received was more of the same bullshit most of us have already seen online.
Apparently, the $325 million dollar HiTest budget did not include a polished presentation of the HiTest Sands silicon smelter or their actual plans for Newport. But it did include a paid consultant named Tim Thompson who did nearly all of the talking for HiTest. Hopefully, the endless reams of bullshit this pipsqueak spouted came pretty cheap, because he did not share anything with the audience that the vast majority of us did not already know.
The only salient fact that was learned is HiTest is planning on just one smokestack to dump toxins over Newport and the surrounding community - for now.
Their plans DO include a 4-subarc furnace which in the words of Jim May, is actually "semi-closed". And the toxic emissions will be as bad as we all think, but allegedly, State Ecology is "on the job" and will ensure that these toxins being emitted into our air, water and soil meet State permitting requirements.
This is a play on word people. There are toxins and amounts that will be permitted to be dumped into your environment and into your lungs.
The important take-away information is that Canada widely pollutes their own land, and that is pretty much what we can expect down here too from them. They are not committed to clean air, clean water or clean soil at all. The exact opposite is true.
Northport is just south of the Canadian border, but is being poisoned by emissions from this smelter, with lead and arsenic.
The Kalispel Tribe takes a strong stance against the proposed silicon smelter. These are the same emissions levels noted here on this blog. There will be more however, if their 4-stack, 4 subarc furnaces are all built (doubling the amounts, at least).
Every point mentioned is correct. This is not a green technology, it is highly pollutive, energy intensive and does not result in any net environmental benefits. These are "greenwash" terms used to gloss over their real costs and effects.
The County will have to illegally "spot-zone" the selected site location - which has all kinds of precedents as being illegal.
If they violate this, they can be challenged in court. The smart move is to simply deny HiTest permission to operate here, because it is a violation of the County Comprehensive Plan. And then there is still the illegal sale of the land by the County and the PUD that can still be nullified.
It is still stunning to me to think how far this has gone. It should have NEVER reached this point, and yet it has. There will be enormous push-back from this community against this toxic monster.
There is a meeting tomorrow, the very first one with the public (finally, also far outside of the requirements by State law) where the public can listen to the dog-and-pony show from HiTest Sands, and their cohorts in Washington, but you can also show up and voice your concerns.
It's time to tell them to stop. Stop the lies, the deceptions, the claims of "no knowledge", the deflection away from toxic emissions, pollutants, health effects and environmental damage. Bring the Silicon Smelter Fact Sheet with you. Do not let them destroy this community.
